Meaningful Manchester derbies

Manchester City 2 Newton Heath 5 Second Division, 3 Nov 1894

The first league meeting between the clubs. City – who state 1894 as their founding year on their badge but can trace their roots back to St Marks’ Church (founded 1880) and Ardwick AFC (founded 1887) – were defeated by Newton Heath, who would be rebranded as Manchester United in 1902 (although the names Manchester Central and Manchester Celtic were considered). Ardwick AFC had played Newton Heath before, in 1889, in a friendly to raise money after an explosion caused by the use of naked flames at the nearby Hyde Road coalmine resulted in the death of 23 miners. This was a good example of the convivial and supportive feeling between the clubs, which would continue well into the 20th century. By the end of it, things would be a little different.

United 0 City 1

First Division, 27 April 1974

Denis Law’s backheel finish for City – the final touch of his competitive club career – is widely perceived as having relegated Manchester United in the penultimate game of the season. In fact other results would have sent United down anyway but it felt like a huge moment at the time and continues to resonate. “The King of Old Trafford” had left United on a free transfer a year earlier and refused to celebrate, leaving the pitch afterwards with his head bowed. Law later admitted: “I have seldom felt so depressed in my life as I did that weekend.” The Guardian’s Eric Todd wrote that day: “It was ‘the most unkindest cut of all’ in the words of Marcus Antonious – he was not in the press box of course – who in the same speech said: ‘If you have tears, prepare to shed them now.’ Which seemed no less relevant.” Some home supporters tried to get the game abandoned in the closing stages by burning toilet paper in the stands and staging numerous pitch invasions, but the 1-0 result stood. United’s 36-year stay in the top tier was over.

City 1-United 0

FA Cup semi-final, 16 April 2011

This victory catapulted City towards a first trophy under their Abu Dhabi owners and the club’s first major honour since 1976. Yaya Touré scored the winner as City recovered from a nervy start in which Dimitar Berbatov spurned two golden chances. In many ways, this was a watershed moment for City. They had failed to beat United in the league that or in the previous season (which included Michael Owen’s last-minute winner in a famous 4-3 victory) but Touré’s winning goal felt like a changing of the guard. He would repeat the trick in the final against Stoke City.

opponents were able to make runs behind the City line.

Erling Haaland had only 19 touches of the ball; the previous season in the derby at Old Trafford, Ilkay Gündogan had the fewest touches of any City player with 74. This seemed the key City conundrum: how to accommodate Haaland, who not merely wanted the ball played to him direct but also didn’t make a huge contribution to the maintenance of possession, which had always been the hallmark of Guardiola sides.

Within three weeks the issue was resolved, thanks to the shift to using four central defenders with John Stones pushing into midfield; Haaland perhaps drops a little deeper than he did, but he still rarely has more than 30 touches in a game. After losing at Tottenham on 5 February, City have been behind for only 15 minutes. But the fundamental point remains; no matter how improved City have been of late, if Guardiola teams have a flaw, it is always that ball played to runners behind the defensive line. There’s a reason Brentford, one of the Premier League’s more direct teams, have beaten City twice this season.

Stones: central or right?

City’s real golden spell of form coincided with the beginning of Guardiola’s ploy of using Stones as an auxiliary midfielder, creating the 3-2 trapezoid defensive shape out of possession that now seems accepted as the best way of defending against the counter. It began with Stones at right-back stepping into midfield, but that risks a rapid break that could release a player in behind him – an issue that, for instance, Southampton exploited on the final day of the season when Trent Alexander-arnold played in that hybrid full-back/central midfield role.

That is a particular danger against a quick player and, while Rashford’s purple patch has seemingly come to an end – just three goals in his last 12 appearances – he could exploit a gap like that. It seems more likely Stones will be used as a centre-back stepping up, where he has played since the 7-0 home win over RB Leipzig in the Champions League. That then means that Kyle Walker’s pace can be deployed on the right against Rashford – if, that is, Rashford plays on the United left.

Who plays up front for United?

If Martial were fit, it’s almost certain he would start at centre-forward for United. Although it’s likely he will be replaced in the summer, he is quick, adept on the break and capable enough at dropping deep to create space for Rashford and Antony as they cut infield from the flanks. Martial played the full 90 minutes in United’s win over City in January; when he has played under Ten Hag, United win 76% of games as opposed to 64% when he does not. But the French striker is out with a hamstring injury, in effect leaving Ten Hag with a choice between Rashford through the centre and Wout Weghorst.

Weghorst has scored only twice for United and frankly, for all his enthusiasm, has rarely looked close to the requisite quality, but Rashford never appears quite as effective through the middle as he does cutting in from the left. If Rashford is used centrally by Ten Hag, it would presumably mean Garnacho on the left. Given the Argentinian’s questionable defensive discipline, that could represent an opportunity for Walker to get forward.

Set plays

One of the areas in which Manchester City have improved this season – a function in part of Haaland’s power – is from crossed set plays. In the league they scored six times directly from crossed set plays but the impact is greater than that: four of Haaland’s five goals against Leipzig, for instance, were the result of uncleared corners, but none actually register as a goal directly from a crossed set play.

At the same time, United have conceded six times in the league from crossed set plays, a situation not helped by injuries at the heart of their defence. Raphaël Varane, at least, is back after a foot injury. With Lisandro Martínez out, he is likely to be partnered by Victor Lindelöf, whose ability to hit long passes could help United to break quickly and exploit that space behind City’s defensive line. That he wins 63% of his aerial duels could also be of benefit in trying somehow to keep Haaland quiet.

If Guardiola teams have one flaw, it has always been that ball played behind the defensive line