Dubai Mile can break festival hoodoo for Johnstons

There is an old theory in horse racing that the best trial of all for the Derby is the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, and while many betting maxims are little more than a fast-track to destitution, 2023 could be a year when this one at least has some substance.

The traditional trials, at Chester, Leopardstown, York and Lingfield, have failed to identify an outstanding candidate.

Auguste Rodin, a complete blowout when favourite for the Guineas last month, is now favourite, almost by default, thanks to his Group One win at Doncaster last autumn, while nine of the 14 runners will be racing at the highest level for the first time. That includes both Military Order, whose Lingfield trial was switched to the all-weather, and Passenger, whose only win was in a Newmarket maiden less than two months ago.

A more positive spin on the lack of an obvious favourite, though, is that this is a Derby field rich with possibilities.

Lightly raced colts with plenty of scope for improvement include Waipiro, who was just over a length behind Military Order at Lingfield but is several times the price, and the unbeaten Artistic Star, who is also, a little surprisingly, the only runner in the field by Galileo.

After a dozen spins through all the replays of the trials, however, that old maxim about the Guineas keeps springing to mind, and above all the performance of Charlie Johnston’s Dubai Mile (1.30) at a trip that was never going to suit a colt who won a 10-furlong Group One at Saint-cloud as a juvenile.

Dubai Mile was outpaced as the leaders got away two furlongs out, but was staying on again with real purpose in the closing stages and was a fast-diminishing five lengths behind the winner at the line.

That also, of course, put him a long way in front of Auguste Rodin, though to be fair to Aidan O’brien’s colt, he was never travelling after an early bump.

But Dubai Mile also beat Arrest, who is half his price today, in his Group One last year, when he showed real courage to get up after being headed twice, and was just behind The Foxes, the Dante winner, in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket in September.

There was no need to give Dubai Mile another run after Newmarket and he has crept in under the radar as a result at around 16-1. Mark Johnston saddled more winners than any other British trainer during his outstanding career but the two Epsom Classics always eluded him. His son, though, may be about to get a Derby winner on his CV at the very first attempt. Epsom 12.50 Highland Avenue had been off for 14 months before running his stable-companion Adayar, the 2021 Derby winner, to three lengths at Newmarket last month and will be hard to beat if he arrives in similar form here. Epsom 2.10 The two fillies at the top of the market have questions to answer after lacklustre runs last time out so Roman Mist, a game winner at Goodwood last month, looks like a more solid option with Oisin Murphy taking the reins for the first time.

Epsom 2.45 Grace Angel raced alone when winning at Redcar last month but her form was backed up by a strong time and she may have been underestimated here at around 9-1.

Epsom 3.20 Hyper-competitive as always for Epsom’s biggest test of speed, but the excellent Kaiya Fraser’s 7lb claim may just tip the balance for Ancient Times. Epsom 3.55 Torito was less than two lengths behind Derby runner Artistic Star at Sandown last time and an official opening handicap mark of 95 looks more than fair. Epsom 4.30 With form figures of 112 over track and trip, Caius Chorister should be hard to pass if she gets an easy time of it in front.

Epsom 5.05 Having slipped in the weights, Mr Wagyu looks poised to repeat last year’s success in this race off just a 2lb higher mark.