Prime minister falls short but can still cement legacy

Justin Trudeau went into Monday’s federal election with one of the world’s highest Covid-19 vaccination rates, billions spent on pandemic aid and the hope that he could convert the earned goodwill into a majority government.

He fell short of that aim: after a 36-day campaign and a C$610m election, the makeup of parliament remained largely unchanged, with the Liberals holding roughly 158 seats – short of the 170 needed for a majority. Trudeau will be forced to navigate a parliament that he needs to woo to survive. But it may yet give him the rare opportunity to pass legacy-defining legislation.

Making his victory speech early yesterday, Trudeau showed no sign that he intends to step down, telling supporters that Liberals had won a “clear mandate” from the public to pursue sweeping policy initiatives. “I think retiring from politics would be the furthest thing from Justin Trudeau’s mind right now,” Gerry Butts, Trudeau’s longtime friend and former adviser, told CBC News.

Still, Trudeau, who ran in 2015 as a progressive candidate with promises to upend the status quo, must increasingly contend with the reality of politics: as the incumbent, he bears the weight of his government’s successes – and failures.

“Even if this election hadn’t happened, he’s been prime minister for six years and there’s only so long you can be in power before voter fatigue sets in,” said Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University..

The Liberals pledged big spending initiatives and Trudeau’s climate plans were called “bold and thoughtful” by a former top Green party leader. While the parliamentary maths remains largely unchanged, Trudeau has the opportunities to pass key legislation with the help of Jagmeet Singh and his leftwing New Democrats, who hold the balance of power.

“If he wants it, there’s a real opportunity here for Trudeau,” said Turnbull. “It’s a chance for him to cement a legacy.”