Train cancellation statistics reveal stark divide across country

The stark regional divide in railway reliability across Britain is laid bare today, with new figures showing 20% of TransPennine Express (TPE) trains were cancelled in November, compared with 2.3% on one commuter line in and out of London and 4.5% on the London Overground.

Figures obtained by the Guardian show the true level of disruption suffered by passengers because they include pre-emptive cancellations made by 10pm the night before, which are not counted in government statistics. The shadow transport secretary, Louise Haigh, demanded the government close this “loophole” and begin withdrawing contracts from failing operators.

TPE, which runs trains in the north of England and Scotland, has the highest cancellation rate of any

British train operating company, running at 19% to 30% each week. It routinely cancels up to 60 services the night before, blaming high levels of staff sickness and a driver training programme.

These “p-code” cancellations, which must be made by 10pm the night before, disappear from the timetable and are not recorded by the Office of Rail and Road, which compiles railway performance data.

P-codes were designed for circumstances beyond an operator’s control – for example overrunning engineering work, or a landslide blocking a line. But some rail companies, with TPE the worst offender, use the code when they don’t have enough staff, misleading customers about the reliability of their services.

Greater Anglia, which runs from London to Essex and the east of England, cancelled 2.3% of trains in November. It also operates the Stansted Express, which recorded 3.7% cancellations. Neither made any p-coded cancellations.

C2C, which has the franchise for the London to Essex line, cancelled 285 trains in the same period, equating to 3.54% of its service. All three companies said they had not used p-codes for cancellations that were their fault. East Midlands Railway, which cancelled 2.9% of trains in November, said it had made five p-code cancellations because of short-term crew sickness.

London Overground cancelled 4.5% of trains in November. All but a handful of those were made on the day, rather than using the p-code.

Train companies serving the north of England have cancelled the most trains in recent weeks, the Guardian learned. TPE cancelled one in five trains in November (19%); most of those (13.8%) were p-code cancellations. During October half-term (from 23 October) TPE cancelled 30% of trains. TPE said it was “extremely sorry” and blamed “the impact of higher-than-usual sickness levels and an unprecedented driver training burden”.

Grand Central, which operates between Bradford and London, cancelled 15.7% of trains in November, including p-codes. It said its figures were skewed by strikes in the first half of the month. CrossCountry, which runs trains from Aberdeen down to Cornwall, cancelled 14% of all services (972 trains) in November and said no p-codes were for crew shortages. “CrossCountry do not support p-coding for a business-as-usual day, as that makes the train ‘disappear’ from retail systems, leaving the customer confused,” the company said.

Northern Rail, which was taken over by the government in March 2020, said that between 16 October and 12 November it had cancelled 7% of services. Its on-the-day cancellation rate was 4.8% (2,418 services out of about 50,000). A further 1,252 services were either removed or amended as part of pre-planned cancellations or service amendments due to “absence with fully trained train crew”, a spokesperson said.

David Sidebottom, the director of passenger watchdog Transport Focus, demanded greater transparency in performance data. “We’re acutely aware of the impacts that cancellations have on passengers – especially if they are short notice.”

Avanti West Coast cancelled 7.7% of services in the four weeks from 16 October, based on the vastly reduced timetable it implemented in August. It did not use any p-codes.

The Department for Transport said: “The government is investing billions into northern transport and working with train operators to recruit new drivers and put long-term solutions in place so passengers can travel confidently without disruption.”