Moscow’s vicious tactics serve to further expose its weakness

The Kremlin thought it would sweep across Ukraine and take Kyiv in a matter of days. Now, more than nine months into its disastrous war with Ukraine, the new Russian strategy of targeting the infrastructure that brings light, heat and water into millions of Ukrainian homes has revealed Russia’s own weakness and its desperation in the face of a defiant Ukrainian resistance.

Russia’s impotence – and the scale of the destruction wrought by Russia against territory it considers its own – has leaked into official statements, even as the Kremlin seeks to leave Ukraine in a dire state at the start of a bitter winter.

At times, Russian officials have compared the destruction in Ukrainian cities and its strategy to that of the second world war, almost portraying the Russian strategy as one of scorched earth.

The approach is in stark contrast to Russia’s initial plan: a shockand-awe strike that would let it take over Ukraine in weeks.

“This campaign would not target critical infrastructure such as power stations and railways, because these were vital to Russia’s plans for occupying the country,” said a report this week by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which revealed details from official orders captured from troops.

“The elimination of Ukraine’s political leadership would primarily be a task for Russia’s special services. Another line of effort, allocated to Russia’s special forces and air-assault troops, was to capture Ukraine’s power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament.”

Vladimir Putin has spoken in defence of the strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, seeking to equate them to alleged Ukrainian strikes in Russian border regions.

Top Russian pundits and propagandists have admitted that Russia has no other strategy: from planning to capture Ukraine, they have moved to a plan of simply crippling the country. Doing so, they now tell the public, may prevent Russia from suffering an even greater defeat.

According to the plans reported by the RUSI, Russia is now in uncharted territory: the FSB security agency never bothered to engage in contingency planning.

The new strategy, which targets civilian infrastructure, is more difficult to sell to the Russian public. A senior figure at a state media agency said editors were now being encouraged to focus on how the strikes were crippling the Ukrainian military, rather than lingering on their humanitarian effects.

But there are mixed messages. Senior officials such as the former president Dmitry Medvedev have openly gloated about the humanitarian disaster facing Ukraine, writing that first Russia must win, and “then we’ll sort out the lights.” Yet on television, cheerleaders for the war have also focused on worst-case scenarios.

“What do we care if another neighbourhood of Kyiv is left without light or disappears?” said Margarita Simonyan, the RT head.

She claimed that Russian leaders could face a Hague tribunal if they lose. Her logic was simple: there is no turning back for Russia now.