US box office Wakanda gives studios rare boost amid the cinema gloom

The glumness that seeps into Marvel’s griefstricken sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was offset by the warmth with which it was received. Critics might have been lukewarm but global audiences turned out en masse. The film is already edging towards the $700m (£570m) mark after less than a month in cinemas.

It was rousing news for the industry after a precarious autumn season with more misses than hits but its success masks a worrying picture. In the US, the Thanksgiving period was the worst holiday showing since 1994 (pandemic years notwithstanding). In 2019, the total was $181m. This year it was only $95m.

The Disney fantasy Strange World tanked with $18.6m, a start so rocky that analysts are suggesting the film will lose more than $100m. Sony’s airborne action drama Devotion sputtered out at $9m, failing to capitalise on the summer success of Top Gun: Maverick. Luca Guadagnino’s Bones and All and Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans struggled to make an impact, with $3.6m and $3.1m respectively.

Trade headlines about the worrying state of the box office have been emerging now for weeks. Universal’s prestige Weinstein investigation drama She Said, Billy Eichner’s landmark gay romcom Bros, the acclaimed Cate Blanchett-led drama Tár, the period whodunnit See How They Run and even Dwayne Johnson’s DC outing Black Adam all underperformed.

A survey in May found that 41% of consumers rarely go to see movies in the cinema any more and 18% don’t go at all.

During the darkest days of the pandemic, studios postponed releases, sold others to streamers and further pushed the premium video on demand option (PVOD), which allowed audiences to rent films that would have otherwise been viewed at cinemas.

Even before the pandemic hit, streaming had altered how we watch new films. “We used to buy $30 DVDs and build collections for years to ensure we had this ‘always on’ access,” said Dallas Lawrence, vice-president at Samba TV, a firm that gathers audience analytics. “Now viewers just sign up and keep their subscriptions to retain access to their family favourites.”

All eyes are currently on this month’s long-awaited Avatar: The Way of Water, a major bet for the industry at a time when almost all bets are off. The 2009 original made almost $3bn and remains the highest grossing film of all time internationally, a phenomenon that some worry might be hard to emulate at a very different time for the theatrical experience.

Its director, James Cameron, says cinema-going will never be the same again. “I knew it would never come back 100%,” he told the Hollywood Reporter. “I don’t think it ever will. Maybe 80% is enough.”