Will she run? Duterte daughter keeps the Philippines guessing

Sara Duterte ahead in the polls despite refusing to commit to presidential race

It was a decade ago, before her father had become Philippine president, that Sara Duterte attracted national attention. A local sheriff had ignored orders issued by her, the mayor of Davao City, to delay the demolition of a shantytown. She arrived at the scene furious and punched him, not once, but four times in the head, in front of reporters.

Duterte, 43, a motorbike lover and tough talker, has a combative image that echoes that of her 76-year-old father, the populist president Rodrigo Duterte. It is widely believed that, as he nears the end of his six-year term limit, she will follow in his footsteps to Manila’s Malacañang Palace.

The younger Duterte has repeatedly said she has no plans to run in the May 2022 election. Analysts, though, are sceptical. She previously swapped places with her father as mayor of Davao City, where the family is extremely powerful. Already, banners have appeared across the country with the words, “Run, Sara, run”. According to early polling by Pulse Asia Research, she has a comfortable lead over all the other candidates.

The stakes for the Philippines could not be higher. Once one of the fastestgrowing economies in Asia, the country has been battered by the pandemic. It endured one of the world’s toughest lockdowns last year, and there is little hope of life returning to normal soon. The Delta variant is overwhelming hospitals, and the country has only administered enough vaccines to fully inoculate about 19% of the population. The Philippines is one of the few countries that has not reopened schools since the start of the pandemic.

There is also growing international scrutiny of its president’s infamously brutal approach to law and order. Just last week, the international criminal court (ICC) announced it would begin an investigation into the so-called “war on drugs”, in which as many as 30,000 people were killed.

Duterte Sr has responded to the ICC case in typically confrontational style. In a recent address, he claimed he wanted to slap the ICC judges. “If you hang me for all I did, go ahead,” he dared the court, adding that he will only answer to Filipinos.

Duterte has announced that he will run as vice-president, stating this will give him immunity from prosecution.

The list of potential candidates for president is lengthy. Among those tipped to run are boxing legend and national hero Manny Pacquiao and Manila mayor and former actor Isko Moreno. Whoever goes up against the Duterte camp will face an uphill battle. Sara Duterte has automatically benefited from her father’s popularity, but she has also gone to great lengths to frame herself as independent, according to Michael Yusingco, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo policy centre. “What makes her different, people around her say, is that she is more organised, she is not as flighty as President Duterte,” he said.

Father and daughter share a tough approach to law and order but Sara Duterte does not adopt the extreme rhetoric of her father, who called the pope a “son of a whore”and said he would be “happy to slaughter” millions of addicts in his war on crime.

Philippine elections allow the public to vote separately for president and vice-president, and it is possible both Dutertes could opt to run on separate tickets. Doing so would be less brazen than a joint effort, but would cement the family’s grip on power.

Even if it is just one Duterte – Sara – in the top job, it is difficult to see her failing to shield her father from the ICC, said Jean Encinas Franco, associate professor at the University of the Philippines. “She’ll be her father’s daughter in the end, even if she likes to distance herself.”